SCC Preview: Who will take season-ending Ford 400?

With Jimmie Johnson in cruise control, trying to find a safe place for a Sunday drive to a fourth straight Sprint Cup championship, the Ford 400 at Homestead-Miami Speedway could turn into a wide-open affair. So we could wind up with a surprise winner. I always pick at people around me by saying "dare to be great," and it's what I'll attempt to do as I look into my crystal ball for the season finale.

How's this for symmetry? We could begin and end the year with Matt Kenseth in Victory Lane. Before you call me crazy, try on these facts. Kenseth won at Homestead in 2007, and in the past two races on 1.5-mile tracks, he was the runner-up at Charlotte and finished third at Texas. Yes, it's true Roush Fenway Racing used to rule the intermediate speedways before losing its"mojo in 2009. Still, because Kenseth failed to make the Chase, his team has been able to go off in a research and development direction, and it has begun to pay big dividends.

Among other drivers I think will be right there is Juan Pablo Montoya. He has threatened to win several races this year on the oval tracks, and his Earnhardt-Ganassi team will throw everything in an attempt to capture the checkered flag in the season's final race.

If my top two underdogs don't perform the way I think they will, look for some of your typical front-runners. You have to believe Mark Martin has the most incentive to get up front, lead the most laps and win. That way, he'll at least put a little pressure on Johnson. Jeff Gordon is also still mathematically alive, but he has no realistic chance to take the title. However, that may mean he'll go all out to try to win.

Among some of my other favorites are Kyle Busch, who led the most laps at Texas only to let late-race pit strategy take that one away. His older brother, Kurt, won that race as well as one earlier in the season on another 1.5-mile track in Atlanta, which means the Blue Deuce should shuffle along near the front here as well.

Superspeedway Points: 2009

1. Jeff Gordon (3,481); 2. Jimmie Johnson (3,369); 3. Tony Stewart (3,353); 4. Mark Martin (3,248); 5. Greg Biffle (3,044); 6. Kurt Busch (2,933); 7. David Reutimann (2,939); 8. Kasey Kahne (2,935); 9. Juan Pablo Montoya (2,913); 10. Denny Hamlin (2,875); 11. Matt Kenseth (2,865); 12. Carl Edwards (2,848); 13. Ryan Newman (2,847); 14. Clint Bowyer (2,786); 15. Kyle Busch (2,685); 16. Brian Vickers (2,640); 17. Kevin Harvick (2,498); 18. Joey Logano (2,495); 19. Jeff Burton (2,473); 20. Martin Truex Jr. (2,421); 21. Casey Mears (2,414); 22. Jamie McMurray (2,223); 23. Sam Hornish Jr. (2,220); 24. Marcos Ambrose (2,210); 25. AJ Allmendinger (2,113)

Big Bucks (SCC value 22.0 and up)

My top picks in this group this week begin with Mark Martin (24.3) and Juan Pablo Montoya (22.8), who's cap-friendly with a chance to run top-5. I also like the Busch brothers, Kyle at 22.2 and Kurt at 23.9. Greg Biffle (22.3) has had some success at Homestead in the past and might be able to rise to the occasion this weekend. Tony Stewart (23.6) should be pretty strong, too.

Serious Coin (SCC value 19.0 to 22.0)

As you've already seen, I'm pretty serious about Matt Kenseth (21.7) on Sunday, and I think he is undervalued compared to what he can deliver. I also think highly of Kasey Kahne (21.9). He's been able to run near the front at Homestead before, not to mention he finished first and third in recent races at Atlanta and Charlotte. I don't see Carl Edwards (21.4) having a chance to win, but he could deliver a solid chunk of points. There are a couple of sleepers in this category, too. David Reutimann (21.3) and Marcos Ambrose (19.9) could be of some help, as could Jeff Burton (21.0), who's delivered three top-10 runs in a row with two of those being top-5 finishes. If you really feel like gambling, Joey Logano (19.5) and Casey Mears (19.4) could be the biggest sleepers of all in this group.

Budget Boys (SCC Value 13.0 to 19.0)

Among these men, Martin Truex Jr. (18.5) paid off big time last week at Phoenix and could do so again at Homestead, where he's finished second, sixth and 10th in his past three races. With Roush Fenway's big-track program beginning to come around, David Ragan (16.8) should get some serious consideration. AJ Allmendinger (17.6) has a shot at the top 20 or better, too. You also have the opportunity this week to go way low with David Gilliland (13.1) as he drives a fourth Toyota for Joe Gibbs. He ran 25th at Charlotte and 28th at Texas in this car. If he could finish inside the top 25 at that price, he could really be a big key to a big score this weekend.

Debit ... not credit

In the top category, as I've already mentioned, Jimmie Johnson (25.6) will just cruise in this race, so you can't count on him to score a large number of points. I'm also not a big fan of Clint Bowyer (22.2) and Ryan Newman (22.1). They'll run decently, but a number drivers just above and below them pricewise will outperform them.

In the serious coin category, Brad Keselowski (19.9) is not the way to go. Normally, I would be a big fan of Brian Vickers (19.7) on this size of track, but that team just hasn't done much lately.

Among the budget boys, I'm finally getting off the Dale Earnhardt Jr. (16.7) train. Maybe if I tell everyone to drop him like a bad habit, he'll have a good run. Sam Hornish Jr. (15.7) will tease you with a good finish every now and then, but he's been too successful at finding trouble lately. He's finished 40th in three of the past five races, along with a 36th-place finish at Martinsville and a 17th on the flat track at Phoenix.

Guru Garrow's gang

I scored a respectable 680 last week at Phoenix, but it would have been so much more if Dale Jr. had not killed my team again. I'm done chasing a good finish from him. I'm like a sugar addict chasing another Twinkie, and I've got to just say no. The rest of my team did pretty well, though. Johnson got the win, Martin was fourth and Truex came home fifth. My "floor pick," Sam Hornish Jr., finished 17th and scored 112 points, and that's pretty sporty for your bottom pick.

Trying to go out with a bang for the season finale, I have blown my team up yet again. Gone are Johnson, Junior and Hornish, and in their place are Matt Kenseth, Juan Pablo Montoya and David Gilliland. They'll team up with my two holdovers, Mark Martin and Martin Truex Jr.